What is the safest bet on soccer?

Let’s face it, the illusion of “sure bets” in sports betting is just that – an illusion. The notion of “guaranteed” returns often brings to mind fixed matches or arbitrage betting, but such information is a closely guarded secret among a very select few, who certainly won’t be sharing their insights. Arbitrage, while theoretically sound as a betting strategy, is fraught with practical risks. Accepting that every wager carries inherent risk is key. Nonetheless, drawing from the collective wisdom of seasoned betting professionals, strategies have been crafted to reduce those risks and enhance the safety of your football betting endeavors. Let’s dive into three such strategies that are revered for their reliability.

Identifying “Safe” Football Bets

What exactly qualifies as a “safe” bet? Essentially, these are wagers with the highest probability of success. However, this is where the catch lies – such markets are pegged by bookmakers with the lowest odds, typically ranging from 1.1 to 1.4. Consequently, seasoned punters seldom engage with these bets due to the minimal returns.

For beginners, these “safe” bets are a prudent starting point – you won’t blow all your cash in one go, and you’ll gradually pick up the essential skills of savvy betting. Discover more insights on starting your betting journey with confidence.

Strategies for Safe Betting on Football

Now, let’s explore three of the safest football betting strategies – betting on the favorite’s victory, scoring in the first half, and zero goals for the underdog. While these strategies boast a high success rate, they are not infallible. Football, with all its unpredictability, may always spring a surprise, so it’s wise not to stake your last penny.

Favoring the 1X2 Market

Betting on the triumph of the stronger team is a versatile tactic applicable across football leagues. The strategy is straightforward – analyze the match beforehand, pinpoint the favorite, and place your bet on their victory. Usually, the bookmaker’s odds reflect the accuracy of your forecast. If the odds for the favorite are no more than 1.5, and for the underdog not less than 3, your bet is on solid ground.

Avoid plunging into odds as low as 1.15 since a single loss might take 8-9 bets to recover. In the first case, the bet is refunded, and in the second, it’s still a win, albeit offset by the reduced odds.

First Half Goal

As the name suggests, this strategy revolves around the market for a goal in the first half. If the bookmakers offer a “First Half Goal – Yes” option, that’s your go-to, but if not, play the over 0.5 goals in the first half. More strategies can be found here. For this strategy to succeed, focus on the most goal-rich leagues like those in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and England. Then, single out 5-6 teams that consistently score before halftime – aiming for a minimum threshold of 70% of their matches. Statistical services online can be a goldmine for such data.

The “Clean-Sheet” Underdog

This approach is the inverse of the previous one. Identify lower-tier leagues where the average goals per game hover around 1-2. Consider football divisions such as Japan and South Africa. Then, spot 3-4 clubs with the lowest individual total goals per match. A suitable match for this strategy would be one where these clubs face favorites with winning odds not exceeding 1.5. Here, you would bet on the underdog’s individual total goals (ITM) market. If the opponent is motivated and has a robust defense, you might even opt for an ITM(0.5). Moreover, this strategy is adaptable to in-play betting.

Watching the game live can sharpen your assessment of the teams’ offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as the underdog’s objectives for the match.

Wrapping up, the safest football bets are highly recommended for novices to practice and hone their betting skills. The risks are low, which can prevent a rapid bankroll depletion in the early days. However, veteran betters often steer clear of these markets due to their low profitability. To breakeven on markets with odds around 1.3, a success rate of 70% is required. While it’s possible to achieve this with a serious approach, the financial gains will always pale in comparison to the effort invested.